Published Date: 1997-12-12 23:50:00
Subject: PRO/EDR> Malaria, incidence related to El Nino - Venezuela
Archive Number: 19971212.2475

MALARIA, INCIDENCE RELATED TO EL NINO - VENEZUELA
*************************************************
A ProMED-mail post

See Also

Malaria, resistant - Venezuela 970404224952,
970404234043
Date: Fri, 05 Dec 1997 19:44:27 -0300
From: Luiz Jacintho da Silva <luisjs@guttenberg.correionet.com.br>

Cycles of Malaria Associated With El Niño in Venezuela, Menno Jan Bouma,
MD, PhD; Christopher Dye, DPhil.
<http://www.ama-assn.org/sci-pubs/journals/most/recent/issues/jama/jbr6268a.
htm>

Context: Malaria has been increasing globally, and epidemics tend to occur
when weather conditions favor this vector-borne disease. Long-term
meteorologic forecasting using El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may
assist in anticipating epidemics and targeting scarce resources.
Objective: To determine whether malaria epidemics in Venezuela are related
to ENSO and rainfall and to determine whether such a relationship could be
used to predict outbreaks.
Design: Retrospective analysis of national malaria morbidity (1975-1995)
and mortality (1910-1935) data in the coastal zone and interior of
Venezuela in relation to El Nino events and rainfall.
Main Outcome Measure: Correlation between malaria mortality and morbidity
and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific, a
parameter of ENSO.
Results: Malaria mortality and morbidity have increased by an average of
36.5% (95% confidence interval, 3.7%-69.3%; P=.004) in years following
recognized El Nino events. A moderate correlation was found between Pacific
tropical SST during a Nino event and malaria 1 year later (r=0.50, P<.001).
Malaria mortality is more strongly related to drought in the year preceding
outbreaks than to rainfall during epidemic years.
Conclusions: Historic and recent data from Venezuela demonstrate that
malaria increases by an average of about one third in the year following a
El Nino event; change in malaria risk can be predicted from Pacific SSTs in
the previous year. Therefore, the occurrence of an El Nino event may help
predict malaria epidemics in this part of South America.
Reference: JAMA. 1997;278:1772-1774.
--
Luiz Jacintho da Silva. M.D.
Professor adjunto, Disciplina de Doencas Transmissiveis
Depto. Clinica Medica, FCM, Unicamp
E-mail: luisjs@correionet.com.br
Fone/Phone: +55 (019) 287 4910
Fax: +55 (019) 251 92 56
Cx. Postal 6019 - Unicamp
13081-970 - Campinas, SP - Brasil/Brazil
......................................chc/es
--
*##########################################################*
ProMED-mail makes every effort to verify the reports that
are posted, but the accuracy and completeness of the
information, and of any statements or opinions based
thereon, are not guaranteed. The reader assumes all risks in
using information posted or archived by ProMED-mail. ISID
and its associated service providers shall not be held
responsible for errors or omissions or held liable for any
damages incurred as a result of use or reliance upon posted
or archived material.
************************************************************
Visit ProMED-mail's web site at <http://www.promedmail.org>.
Send all items for posting to: promed@promedmail.org
(NOT to an individual moderator). If you do not give your
full name and affiliation, it may not be posted. Send
commands to subscribe/unsubscribe, get archives, help,
etc. to: majordomo@promedmail.org. For assistance from a
human being send mail to: owner-promed@promedmail.org.
############################################################
############################################################