Published Date: 1998-01-01 23:50:00
Subject: PRO/EDR> Dengue - Thailand
Archive Number: 19980101.0007

DENGUE - THAILAND
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A ProMED-mail post

See Also

Dengue - Pacific area (04) 970623191039
Date: Thu, 1 Jan 1998
From: Dorothy Preslar <dpreslar@fas.org>
Sources: The Bangkok Post, 31 Dec 1997; The Nation, 31 Dec 1997

The number of recorded cases of dengue in Thailand this year [1997 (77,155
with 178 deaths) is being partly blamed on the El Nino phenomenon that
brought warmer than usual temperatures. But Dr. Nara Nakwattananakul,
deputy director of the health department said more data and information are
needed to prove the connection. "If El Nino is the cause, we will have to
be on alert to handle next year's situation."
Dr. Wichai Chokewiwat, a departmental expert, said that more of this year's
cases have involved adults rather than children under 10, [the population
normally affected by the disease. He speculates that the virus may be
mutating and that Thais may also have less immunity to the virus.
Thailand's annual rainy season is over, but the normally cool winter months
have been warmer than usual and Bangkok residents have noticed an increase
in the number of mosquitoes. "The longer the weather remains warm, the more
mosquitoes multiply, increasing the spread of tropical diseases," Nara told
the Bangkok Post.
--
ProMED-mail
e-mail: promed@usa.healthnet.org
[Speculations that "the virus" may be mutating and that Thais may have less
(i.e., lowered) immunity to "the virus" are, at the very least,
discussable. There are four viruses that cause dengue (dengue fever and
dengue hemorrhagic fever {DHF}). The occurrence of DHF most often has been
correlated with hyperendemic dengue situations. That is, the more dengue
occurring, the greater likelihood of the occurrence of DHF. In a situation
such as occurs in Thailand, with dengue viruses transmitted at a high rate,
the probability is low that herd immunity is decreasing. Evidence for
virus mutation is required, speculation not helpful. - Mod.CHC
......................................chc/es
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ProMED-mail makes every effort to verify the reports that
are posted, but the accuracy and completeness of the
information, and of any statements or opinions based
thereon, are not guaranteed. The reader assumes all risks in
using information posted or archived by ProMED-mail. ISID
and its associated service providers shall not be held
responsible for errors or omissions or held liable for any
damages incurred as a result of use or reliance upon posted
or archived material.
************************************************************
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Send all items for posting to: promed@promedmail.org
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