Published Date: 2002-03-23 23:50:00
Subject: PRO/AH> Tick-borne encephalitis - Germany (south) (04)
Archive Number: 20020323.3805

TICK-BORNE ENCEPHALITIS - GERMANY (SOUTH) (04)
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See Also

Tick-borne encephalitis - Germany (south) 20020316.3758
Tick-borne encephalitis - Germany (south) (02) 20020319.3771
Tick-borne encephalitis - Germany (south) (03) 20020322.3794
Date: Fri 22 Mar 20
From: Sarah Randolph <sarah.randolph@zoology.oxford.ac.uk>

Predictive Risk Mapping in TBE Epidemiology
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Whether or not the apparent distribution of tick-borne encephalitis
(TBE) in Germany is exaggerated by cases of sero-conversion imported
from Austria, Peter Kimmig's observations concur with our predictive
risk map.
This risk map was derived by statistical matching of the observed
distribution up to 1997, plotted by IMMUNO Ag (now Baxter-Immuno), to
multi-temporal satellite imagery. Large areas of TBE presence are
predicted where the disease had not been previously recorded in
southern Germany. This map identifies places that are environmentally
suitable for virus circulation, which does not necessarily mean that
human infection will occur. As conditions change, for a number of
biological and non-biological reasons, the probability of human
infection changes, and new foci become apparent.
Surveillance in these predicted risk areas may forewarn of a threat of
infection, just where preemptive vaccination may be appropriate.
Recently identified foci also coincide with the scattered "false
positive" predictions around the major lakes in southern Sweden and on
the southern coastline of Norway. Greater surveillance in the region
of Skane, the most southerly tip of Sweden where TBE was not suspected
before, might uncover existing or new foci.
--
Dr Sarah Randolph
Oxford Tick Research Group (OTRG)
Reader in Parasite Ecology
Department of Zoology, University of Oxford
South Parks Road
Oxford OX1 3PS, U.K.
<sarah.randolph@zoology.ox.ac.uk>
[The predictive risk map produced by the Oxford Tick Research Group is
an interesting example of the application of multi-temporal satellite
imagery and worth a look. Please note that until Mon 25 Mar 2002 the
URL for the OTRG web-site and the map is:
<http://users.ox.ac.uk/~zool0120/index.htm>
after which it will be:
<http://users.ox.ac.uk/~zool0048/index2.htm>
- Mod.CP
...............................cp/pg/jw

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